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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-22 22:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222044 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Recent ASCAT data confirmed that the depression has not become any better organized and that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the main convection. T-numbers have remain either steady or decrease slightly, so the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt at this time. Despite the current lack of organization, the cyclone is expected to be in a very favorable environment of low shear and over warm waters. With these conditions, I have no option but to forecast strengthening. This process will probably be slow during the next day or so, but after that time, the cyclone should strengthen at a faster pace and become a hurricane. This follows the latest intensity guidance which suggest that the most rapid increase in the winds should occur beyond 48 hours. The depression appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 11 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and global models continue to forecast a strong ridge extending from Mexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern will keep the cyclone on the same general west-northwestward track for the next 5 days, as indicated by the general guidance. This solution is not different from the previous NHC track forecasts which have been keeping the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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