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Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon. Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center, though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at 1800 UTC. As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall that day. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.8N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 21:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 17.8, -89.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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