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Tropical Depression Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 172035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-17 21:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 17.8, -89.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 172034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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