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Tropical Depression Sara Graphics
2024-11-17 21:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:36:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:36:10 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Since making landfall, Sara appears to be gradually weakening as it straddles the area between Mexico and Guatemala this afternoon. Convective activity has remained somewhat intact near the center, though the low-level cloud motions from the GOES-16 1 minute mesoscale sector suggest the circulation definition is already becoming more diffuse. The initial intensity remains 30 kt this advisory after the system was downgraded to a depression earlier at 1800 UTC. As expected Sara has sped up a bit today, with its initial motion now estimated at 300/10 kt. A turn more northwestward is expected tonight before the depression opens up into a trough at some point tonight or tomorrow, in good agreement with the bulk of the forecast aids. As previously discussed, the track aids do extend further north than the current NHC forecast track into the Gulf of Mexico, mainly because they track the remnant vorticity of the system, even though it will no longer be a tropical cyclone. However, the moisture plume associated with the remnants of Sara is anticipated to contribute to enhanced rainfall along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where the Weather Prediction Center currently has a slight risk for excessive rainfall that day. Sara has produced a tremendous amount of rain in Honduras. Data from the country's government indicate reports of more than 40 inches of rain at some locations. Heavy rainfall is continuing over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as Sara moves further inland. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.8N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 18/0600Z 18.9N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2024-11-17 21:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 172035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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