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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-12 10:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120854 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The structure of the depression has changed little during the past few hours, with the low-level center still located on the eastern edge of a central cluster of deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt, while the objective ADT estimate is T2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity therefore remains 30 kt. Low- to mid-level high pressure is currently located north of the depression near the Baja California peninsula, and it is steering the cyclone westward at 270/10 kt. This ridging is expected to strengthen and build westward through the forecast period, imparting a continued westward or even south-of-due-west motion on the cyclone through day 5. In fact, with the exception of the UKMET, the other track models have shifted notably southward from the previous NHC forecast for the first 72 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted southward, close to the TVCN multi-model consensus, but it is not as far south as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising to see additional southward adjustments in future forecast packages. Various shear analyses place 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the depression, and that shear is likely to continue for another 24-36 hours. In the meantime, the depression is moving over very warm waters of 28-29 deg C, and the cyclone's forecast low latitude should keep it over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to suggest that significant deepening won't occur for another 24-48 hours (possibly due to the ongoing shear). Gradual strengthening is therefore forecast initially, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first 48 hours. After 48 hours, many of the models show more significant intensification due to lower shear, and during that period the NHC forecast is close to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous one on days 3, 4, and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 12.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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