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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-08-06 04:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has organized into a couple of bands over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Visible satellite data also indicates that the circulation has become better defined and advisories are being initiated on the tenth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue heading westward to the south of a narrow mid- to upper-level ridge. After 72 hours, a deepening mid-level trough well to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to produce a weakness in the ridge between 140W and 150W longitude. This should result in the cyclone turning west-northwestward, then northwestward late in the forecast period. The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment during the next several days. The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some mid-level dry air to the north of the system. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. After 72 hours, slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear are expected to induce weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.5N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 12.5N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 12.5N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 12.6N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 12.9N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.2N 140.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 15.8N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 17.8N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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