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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-22 16:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221455 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102014 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 I thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one. The disturbance that NHC has been monitoring for several days has finally developed enough circulation and convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the sixth cyclone that has formed in the month of July. The center is located on the northern edge of a circular mass of deep convection and, based of an average of Dvorak numbers, it is being assigned an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is in between TS Greg and TD 9-E, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening. However, most of the global models show a decrease of the shear in the next few days, and this will allow some intensification. The depression is trapped south of a subtropical ridge and is moving toward the west at about 6 kt. The nose of the ridge is forecast to amplify westward, and this flow pattern will likely force the cyclone on a slow west and then west-southwest track during the next five days. Most of the guidance agree with this solution, but one must use caution since there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E which increases the forecast uncertainty. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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