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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-23 04:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 900 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Last-light visible images indicate that the low-level center of Tropical Depression Ten-E remains exposed just to the north of the main convective mass due to the effects of 10-15 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so that will remain the initial intensity. The intensity forecast is low confidence due to a large spread in the guidance and the possibility of interaction with Tropical Storm Hilary to the east late in the forecast period. All guidance agrees that northerly shear produced by a nearby upper-level trough should continue for the next 36 h, and based on this, the forecast is for slow strengthening. The models forecast a somewhat more favorable environment from 36-72 h, but the guidance becomes very divergent on how this will affect the cyclone. By 72 hr, the LGEM forecasts a 35 kt intensity, the HWRF an 85 kt intensity, and several other reliable models in between those extremes. After 72 hr, the cyclone may feel the impact of outflow from Hilary, which would likely stop any strengthening. The new intensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near the center of a well spread out guidance envelope. The initial motion is 280/7. A ridge between the depression and Tropical Storm Greg to the west is forecast to steer Ten-E to the west or west-southwest over the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, the track could be affected by interaction with Hilary, although only the GFS shows a major impact before 120 h and thus it is to the southeast of the other models. The new forecast track is little changed from the previous track and uses the premise that the main track impact from the aforementioned interaction will be after 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.6N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 14.7N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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