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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 28
2015-07-18 10:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180841 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores' cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory. The cyclone has been maintaining a small area of relatively shallow convection southwest of the partially exposed low-level center. An ASCAT pass at 0454 UTC showed peak winds of 34-kt winds over the western part of the circulation, and it is assumed that higher winds are still occurring closer to the center. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt to be consistent with the earlier ASCAT pass. The cyclone is temporarily passing over a narrow tongue of relatively warmer water but should reach much colder waters within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once this occurs, Dolores should lose any remaining convection and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day or so. The large circulation will take some time to spin down even without convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/09. Global models show Dolores turning northwestward and north-northwestward within 24 hours as it is steered between a subtropical ridge over the southern United States and a mid- to upper-level trough offshore the California coast. Once the cyclone fully decouples and becomes shallow, it should decelerate and move northward or northeastward in the low- level flow prior to dissipation. The new track forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous one to be closer to the multi-model consensus. Moisture associated with Dolores should spread into southern and central California late this weekend and early next week, possibly triggering isolated areas of heavy rains across the region. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.9N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 25.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 27.4N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 29.5N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 31.3N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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