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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-07-18 16:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 181433 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the warmer water to the south. Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt, and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt. Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24 hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern California coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN). Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough west of California. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very similar after 24 hours. This solution is very close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus. Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada. Please refer to statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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