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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-06-27 22:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272042 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Various satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a recent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is generous. Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The official intensity forecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON. The initial motion is 290/11. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h. After that, a westward or south of westward motion is expected. The official forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the south of the model consensus between 24-48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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