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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-06-28 04:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Convection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this evening and is now separated from the low-level center. A blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be generous. The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused continued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. Dora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the long-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt. A west-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to three days. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus and the more southern ECMWF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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