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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-06-28 10:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280836 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 Microwave images indicate that Dora stopped producing deep convection soon after 0000 UTC, and all cloud tops warmed above -50C by 0245 UTC. The circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Deep convection is unlikely to return due to cold sea surface temperatures, and Dora is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later this morning or this afternoon. Dora has slowed down with an initial motion estimate of 285/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should maintain Dora on a similar west-northwestward trajectory for the next day or two. Based on the latest surface fields from the GFS and ECMWF models, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1800Z 21.6N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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