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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-06-25 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Dora continues to exhibit well-defined convective spiral bands, with a developing CDO. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 3.0 so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical cyclone will be in a low-shear environment with anticyclonic upper-level flow for several days. These dynamical factors would favor intensification. Waters beneath Dora, however, will begin to cool soon and the system should encounter significantly cooler waters within 48 hours or so. Therefore the window of opportunity for strengthening is decreasing, especially since the cyclone is moving a little faster than before. The official intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus and still shows Dora becoming a hurricane within 24 hours. The latest center fixes yield a faster motion of around 300/12 kt. A well-established subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should produce a continued west-northwestward motion for much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5 a more westward track is likely due to the system weakening and becoming a shallow vortex. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, close to, or a little south of, the latest model consensus. Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico during the day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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