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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-07-14 22:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142039 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 While Enrique moved over a tongue of warm water, the cloud pattern became a little better organized. It now consists of a small central dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band. The upper-level outflow remains well defined primarily on the western semicircle. A recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds are at least 40 kt, and since Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have increased to T3.0, the initial intensity is now 45 kt. In about 12 to 24 hours, the circulation will be over cooler waters, and gradual weakening should begin. The shear is forecast to increase, adding to the weakening process, and Enrique should become a remnant low in 3 days or sooner. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. Global models indicate that in about 3 days, the steering currents will collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely Enrique will meander until dissipation. This NHC track is consistent with the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models primarily during the next 2 to 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.8N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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