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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-08-28 16:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 69.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 74.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 77.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 79.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 26.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 69.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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