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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-07-11 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110836 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 The areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues to decrease, and microwave images indicate that all the remaining deep convection is restricted to the northwestern quadrant. Based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers, Eugene is estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt. With sea surface temperatures decreasing below 22 deg C ahead of Eugene, the cyclone's winds and convection will continue to wane, and it will likely degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. Based on the global models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5. Eugene remains on a steady northwestward heading of 325/8 kt. Little change in this trajectory is expected during the next several days as Eugene moves toward a break in the subtropical ridge located off the northern Baja California coast. Some reduction in forward speed is likely by day 3 and 4 when the remnant low is steered by weaker low-level winds. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and is not too different from the previous forecast. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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