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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-07-11 16:51:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111451 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Deep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and areal coverage. Consequently, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB as well as objective ADT values from CIMSS continue to drop. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, though this is with a substantial amount of uncertainty. A 0949Z AMSR2 microwave image helped to locate the center of Eugene this morning. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt. Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged and continues to be based upon the multi-model consensus technique TVCN. Eugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air as it moves into the stratocumulus-infested waters west of Baja California. This will continue due to the northwestward track over even cooler SSTs during the next two days. It is expected that Eugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in 24-36 hr and dissipate completely in about 5 days. The official intensity forecast is slightly lower than that previously and is based upon the multi-model consensus technique IVCN. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next couple days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.3N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.4N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 24.6N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 25.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 27.6N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 28.8N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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