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Tropical Storm Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-07-12 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120839 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene is producing minimal deep convection, with only a small patch of cloud tops colder than -50 deg C north of the center. An ASCAT pass at 0453 UTC indicated that the cyclone was still producing 35-40 kt winds at the time. Since Eugene is now over sea surface temperatures of 22-23 deg C and the circulation continues to spin down, the advisory intensity is set at 35 kt. Significant deep convection is unlikely to return given the cold ocean, and Eugene is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today. Maximum winds will also continue to decrease over the next few days, and the circulation should dissipate by day 4. Eugene is maintaining a northwestward motion of 320/8 kt, steered by low- to mid-level high pressure located over the Baja California peninsula. This ridging is expected to strengthen and shift westward over the next few days, which should cause the remnant circulation of Eugene to bend a little more to the west before dissipation. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Swells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California during the next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.9N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.8N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 26.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 28.0N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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