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Tropical Storm FERNANDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-12 16:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121449 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Six-E has become better organized during the past several hours. While the cyclone is still being affected by northeasterly vertical wind shear, an area of convection has formed over the low-level center and outer convective bands are present in the southwestern semicircle. An average of various satellite intensity estimates is 35 kt, and based on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernanda. The initial motion is 270/9. Deep-layer ridging north of the cyclone is steering it generally westward, and the ridge is expected to strengthen and build westward during the next 4-5 days. Based on this evolution, Fernanda should move generally westward or south of westward through at least 72 hours, with a north of west motion expected thereafter. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but slightly south of, the previous forecast. The large-scale models suggest that the current shear should subside over the next 24 h or so and then remain light through the remainder of the forecast period. That, combined with 28-29C sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow the system to intensify. As seen in the previous advisory, the new intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the first 24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of development from 36-72 h. The new forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while the environment is not currently conducive for rapid intensification, it may become more favorable once the shear decreases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 12.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 12.0N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 12.0N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 11.9N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 11.7N 118.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 11.5N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 12.0N 128.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 13.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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