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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-13 04:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130238 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Recent microwave images show that the center of Fernanda remains near the northeastern edge of the deep convection due to light-to- moderate northeasterly shear. However, the center has become a little more embedded within the cold cloud tops this evening. As a result of the slight improvement in organization, the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt. The global models show the shear over Fernanda decreasing within the next 12 to 24 h and becoming quite low while the cyclone moves over warm water during the remainder of the forecast period. This should lead to strengthening and most of the intensity guidance brings Fernanda to major hurricane strength in 3 to 4 days. The updated NHC forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory and also shows Fernanda becoming a major hurricane. It should be noted that the SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index shows a 50 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity over the next 3 days. Fernanda is moving westward to west-southwestward at about 8 kt. A deep layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build westward during the next few days which should keep Fernanda on a west or slightly south-of-west heading. After 72 h, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward as it nears the western portion of the ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the cyclone and how much latitude it will gain later in the period. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5. This is in best agreement with the ECMWF and the HFIP corrected consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 11.7N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 11.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 11.4N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 11.7N 125.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 12.5N 129.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 133.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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