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Tropical Storm Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-13 16:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131435 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017 Recent IR and WV images show that Fernanda has begun to establish good outflow in all quadrants, indicating that the shear that previously affected the tropical storm is diminishing. Recent SSMI and SSMIS passes from 1016 and 1130 UTC, respectively, show that that convection is wrapping all the way around a mid-level center, but the low-level center remains displaced a little to the north-northeast. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to T 3.5 / 55kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to that value. Confirming what the satellite data suggests, the analyzed shear has decreased below 10 kt. Warm SSTs and sufficient moisture are also contributing to an environment that is very conducive for continued intensification. The SHIPS-RII shows a greater than 50 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in 24 hours and a 45 kt increase in 48 hours. This is a notable increase in the probabilities which have doubled in the last 12 h. Considering the convective structure of the cyclone has improved over the past few hours, and the lack of any obvious inhibiting environmental factors, rapid intensification within the next 24 or 36 hours seems likely. The intensity forecast has been substantially increased for the first 48 hours and now explicitly shows an increase of 30 kt within 24 hours. Fernanda is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength by tomorrow evening, with conditions favoring additional intensification after that. Near the end of the forecast period, the hurricane is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures that could cause slight weakening. The intensity forecast is near the top of the guidance envelope, close to the corrected consensus aids FSSE and HCCA. No major changes have been made to the track forecast. The initial motion estimate remains 265/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending over a large portion of the eastern north Pacific will steer Fernanda generally westward for the next 2-3 days. Most of the dynamical guidance still shows a slight weakening of the ridge after about 3 days which would cause Fernanda to turn toward the northwest. The NHC forecast is very close to to the track consensus TVCN and is nearly on top of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 11.7N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 11.5N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 11.2N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 11.0N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 11.2N 122.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 12.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 13.4N 131.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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