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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-08-07 04:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070242 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 The cloud pattern of Hilda has not changed much since the previous advisory. The cyclone has a couple of curved convective bands with a small symmetric central dense overcast. Recent microwave data also indicates that the inner core has not become any better organized during the afternoon. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers support maintaining an initial intensity of 50 kt. Hilda is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next couple of days. These conditions favor intensification and the NHC forecast brings Hilda to hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. The new official forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in about 48 hours, which is a blend of the latest statistical guidance. After that time, a drier and more stable air mass and increasing southwesterly shear around 96 h are expected to induce weakening. The NHC forecast is below the model guidance late in the forecast period, since the small tropical cyclone is likely to spin down more quickly as a result of the strong shear. The tropical storm is moving due west or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The forecast reasoning remains the same as before. Hilda is expected to turn west-northwestward in about 36 hours when it nears the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to its north. In about 96 hours, Hilda is forecast to turn northwestward due to a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge. The model guidance is in good agreement through day 3, but diverge somewhat thereafter. The ECMWF and UKMET show a faster forward motion and are along the western edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the GFS and HWRF are along the eastern edge. The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and near the GFS ensemble mean late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 12.7N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.7N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 138.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.7N 140.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.5N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 17.8N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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