je.st
news
Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-08-28 22:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 The low-level center of Hector has completely decoupled from its deep convection today. Visible satellite images and scatterometer data indicate the center is south of previous estimates, and the circulation still appears elongated with weak winds on the south side. Additionally, much of the deep convection from earlier today has collapsed, and cloud top temperatures have warmed to the northeast of the center. Despite its degraded structure, a recent ASCAT-B pass shows Hector is still producing tropical-storm-force winds in its northern semicircle, and the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The estimated motion of the storm is south of due west (260/8 kt). A subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should continue steering the cyclone westward during the next couple of days. There are no changes to the forecast reasoning, although the latest NHC forecast track is shifted southward based on the relocation of the center. Additional weakening is forecast given Hector's poor organization and the hostile environmental conditions it faces, namely the moderate west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the surrounding environment. Based on current satellite trends and the latest model-simulated satellite imagery, Hector is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 h and dissipate by 48 h. However, it is possible that Hector could open into a trough sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 17.6N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 17.7N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 17.7N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics