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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-08-29 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 142 WTPZ43 KNHC 290232 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Satellite imagery this evening shows that Hector is still losing organization. The low-level center is now well-removed to the southwest of the convection, and there are indications that a new vorticity center is trying to form near the remaining convection. This development is distorting the circulation and stretching it into a northeast-southwest oriented trough. Most of the various satellite intensity estimates are now in the 30-35 kt range, and based on them the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 35 kt. A combination of cool sea surface temperatures near the forecast track, dry air entrainment, and southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause Hector to weaken further. The new intensity forecast is based on the global models, and it has the system weakening to a remnant low pressure area in 24 h or less followed by degeneration to a trough between 36-48 h. However, given current trends it is possible that Hector could weaken to a trough at any time. Due to the disorganization, the initial motion is uncertain and is estimated to be 270/10 kt. A general westward motion should continue until the system dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 17.3N 135.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.3N 138.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 17.3N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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