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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-01 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 384 WTPZ45 KNHC 012037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Hector continues to become better organized. Microwave data indicate that the low- and mid-level centers are now closer together, and visible satellite imagery is showing more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS ADT are all 45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity. Hector should continue to intensify for the next day or so in a favorable environment of light-to-moderate shear and warm SSTs. However, a surge of northeasterly upper-level flow is forecast to impact the cyclone on Thursday, which will likely arrest the strengthening trend. This stronger flow should abate late Friday or Saturday, leading to further intensification. The latest forecast is below the consensus at shorter range, then above the consensus at long range. There remains the potential that the intensity forecast is too low at days 4 and 5, but the model guidance is too divergent with the upper-level environment at that time to have confidence in raising the forecast. Scatterometer and microwave data are showing the system moving westward at 10 kt. Hector should continue moving westward overnight and then even move a little south-of-west for the next few days as the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. The biggest change from 6 hours ago is that the guidance is faster at long range due to the tropical cyclone staying separate from an upper-level trough in the northwestward part of the eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast follows the speedier trend of the guidance, but is not as fast as the ECMWF or UKMET models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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