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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-07-29 16:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Irwin's cloud pattern has not changed much since yesterday. It consists of a low-level center just to the north of a cyclonically curved convective band in the southern semicircle. An average of the Dvorak intensity estimates supports a 50-kt tropical cyclone. The circulation is still over warm waters and Irwin could maintain the same intensity for another 12 hours or so. After that time, the cyclone will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual weakening. Models still disagree if Hilary and Irwin will merge as forecast by the GFS, or if both systems will dissipate nearby over cool waters as suggested by the ECMWF. The NHC forecast opts for the ECMWF proposal, but regardless of the solution, both system are anticipated to be weak remnant lows or may have even dissipated by then. Today, I found Irwin basically in the same spot I left it yesterday. It was anticipated that the cyclone was going to be meandering for a while within very weak steering currents, but it appears that this is about to change soon. Irwin will be influenced by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary, and the cyclone should begin to move northward and northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 12 hours and beyond. The track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCX and TVCN which have been the models with the highest skill in forecasting Irwin so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 20.1N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 22.3N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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