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Tropical Storm JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-08-27 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270833 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 The cyclone has become better organized on satellite pictures tonight, with a ball of convection near the center and some banding features. In addition, microwave data show a better defined low- level inner core structure. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB are both 35 kt and this will be the initial intensity. Microwave and night visible images give an initial motion of 285/13. The cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean, and move generally westward along the southern periphery of the ridge for the next 3-4 days. By day 4, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken some as a mid-latitude trough drops southward, steering Jimena on a west-northwestward track. Overall, the model guidance is just a bit faster by the end of the forecast period, and the NHC forecast follows that trend. There are no obvious impediments to intensification for Jimena during the next several days, with very warm water, moist mid-level air and little significant shear. The statistical and global models show a very powerful hurricane developing in a few days, and that solution seems likely given the large-scale environment. Thus, the official intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is near or above the intensity consensus throughout most of the period. This forecast could be conservative with the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble showing an even stronger hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 12.3N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 12.6N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 13.0N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 13.2N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 13.1N 125.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 13.5N 128.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 16.5N 137.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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