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Tropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-11-04 03:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024 Patty has continued producing deep convection since the time of the previous advisory, although the convective structure has recently degraded slightly on the latest infrared images. The infrared satellite images and an 03/2138 UTC ASCAT pass depict a more compact cyclone with a confined radius of maximum winds than earlier in the system's life. Patty is also no longer co-located with the upper-level low that was earlier responsible for its hybrid characteristics. Based on these observations, Patty has made the transition into a tropical storm. The earlier ASCAT pass showed tropical storm force winds as high as 39 kt in the southern semicircle. The initial intensity is therefore held at 40 kt. The initial motion of the tropical storm is estimated to be eastward, or 085/17 kt. Patty is expected to turn east-northeastward over the next day, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast, closer to the latest track consensus guidance. All guidance insists Patty will weaken significantly during the next day or two as the cyclone encounters progressively colder sea-surface temperatures, stronger vertical wind shear and drier air. Although the timing of when Patty is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical has been pushed back slightly, confidence is fairly high that the system will be falling apart and weakening in a day or two. The various global models agree that Patty should open up into a trough and dissipate by hour 48, around the time that the circulation reaches the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Due to orographic lifting, some rainfall impacts appear possible for portions of Portugal and Spain from Patty's remnants. Key messages: 1. Between late Monday and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 37.7N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Patty (AT2/AL172024)
2024-11-04 03:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PATTY TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Nov 4 the center of Patty was located near 37.7, -20.0 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-11-04 03:34:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 20.0W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 360SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 20.0W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 21.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 38.4N 16.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.8N 12.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 41.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 20.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics