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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-21 19:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211742 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95 kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first 12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow. No changes were made to the track forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1800Z 29.4N 59.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-21 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 935 WTNT42 KNHC 210852 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt during the past 24 hours. As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night. Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF models are showing some deviation to the east and west, respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model consensus aids. Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island as a hurricane. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-21 04:36:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 849 WTNT42 KNHC 210236 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane of the season. Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4 days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus. Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very low which should limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be extratropical by that time. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.5N 56.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-10-20 22:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202049 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 Epsilons structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery. Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several 45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle. The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races northeastward across the central Atlantic. Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA aids through the rest of the forecast period. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 27.9N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Tropical Storm Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-20 17:00:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201500 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle. Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning, recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids (excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough. By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content. Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days, and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane late this week. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 26.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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