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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-10-10 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h. Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-10-09 22:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092056 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Delta has weakened some more since the last advisory. The eye structure on the radar has become less organized, with about 50 percent of the eyewall remaining in the northern semicircle. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to the 100-105 kt range, along with maximum SFMR surface wind estimates in the 80-85 kt range. In addition, the central pressure has risen to near 966 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt. The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 015/12 kt, with the hurricane moving between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This motion should continue through the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast as Delta or its remnants move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. While the track guidance remains tightly clustered, the guidance is a little faster than the previous run. So, the new track forecast is similar in direction, but slightly faster than the previous one. The forecast track has the center of Delta making landfall in southwestern Louisiana in the next few hours and then moving across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that, the system should move across northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along the forecast track could cause a little more weakening in the last few hours before landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon. As in the last advisory, the cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring and will continue near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 29.3N 93.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-10-09 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 157 WTPZ44 KNHC 092034 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Deep convection has persisted near the center of Norbert for the past several hours. However, a recent ASCAT overpass as well as visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated. In addition, the wind field surrounding the depression suggests that is remains very near, if not embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The initial intensity of 25 kt is based off data from the ASCAT overpass. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that Norbert will open into a trough as it becomes absorbed into the ITCZ in a couple of days, and the official forecast now indicates dissipation just after 48 h. Norbert continues to move toward the northwest at 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 13.5N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-10-09 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 796 WTNT41 KNHC 091448 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta has weakened a little since the last advisory. The central pressure has risen to 962 mb, and the strongest 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the NOAA plane were 107 kt. In addition, SFMR wind estimates have been in the 85-95 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt. Delta is moving northward or 360/11 kt between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected during the next few hours, and the center is forecast to cross the southwestern coast of Louisiana late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, a continued north-northeastward motion should bring the center across central and northeastern Louisiana by the 24 h point. Thereafter, Delta is expected to move generally northeastward through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys until it dissipates. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along the forecast track should cause Delta to continue to weaken before landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon or evening. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Water levels in this area will rise quickly this afternoon and evening as Delta approaches and efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 28.0N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-10-09 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091433 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in agreement with the majority of the global models. Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest, albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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