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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-13 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2020 Low pressure associated with the remnants of Norbert has become well-organized today, with persistent convection near and north of the estimated low-level center. Partial ScatSat and ASCAT-B passes near of this system suggest the low-level circulation is closed, and 25-30 kt scatterometer winds are noted in the northeast quadrant of the low. Additionally, earlier surface observations from Socorro Island, Mexico and ship observations from the Nathaniel B Palmer research vessel reported northwesterly winds on the backside of the system. Together, all this information supports the conclusion that the remnants of Norbert have redeveloped into a tropical depression. The initial intensity for Norbert is set at 30 kt based on the recent ASCAT-B overpass and a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from SAB. Norbert is only forecast to be a short-lived depression given the increasingly hostile environmental conditions it is expected to face during the next 24-48 h. While the vertical wind shear is currently weak, it is forecast to quickly increase by Wednesday courtesy of a mid- to upper-level low pressure system centered offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The majority of the guidance shows little or no intensity change, and the official NHC intensity forecast calls for Norbert to remain a 30-kt depression during the next 24 h. This should be followed by weakening as Norbert transitions to a remnant low by 48 h due to 20+ kt of deep-layer shear and decreased oceanic heat content. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Norbert is currently moving to the northwest at 11 kt. This general motion will continue for the next 24 h as the depression moves between a deep-layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the upper low offshore of Baja California. As the upper low shifts westward, Norbert's forward speed will slow as the depression is drawn more northward before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.8N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 23.0N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 24.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 25.5N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this afternoon. The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta or its remnants generally northeastward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models. Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-10 10:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Delta continues to track north-northeastward across Louisiana bringing tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains to portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Doppler radar images show that the storm is asymmetric, with most of the heavy rains occurring on the north side of the circulation. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical depression later today, and dissipate entirely in a couple of days. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 14 kt. A bend to the northeast is expected to occur later today, and that motion should continue until the system opens into a trough in 48 to 60 hours. Even though Delta is forecast to dissipate over or near Kentucky, the moisture associated with its remnants will continue northeastward and move across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. early next week. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist for a few more hours near the path of Deltas center. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 31.8N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1800Z 33.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0600Z 34.4N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 36.0N 86.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 38.2N 83.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Remnants of Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-10 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100835 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Norbert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Recent satellite imagery shows multiple low-level cloud swirls in the vicinity of Norbert's last estimated center position. A 0350Z ASCAT-A pass depicts a broad cyclonic circulation with at least two centers, and the only 20 kt or higher winds are displaced well to the southeast and likely associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In fact, the most well-defined circulation in the scatterometer data appears to have originated from the ITCZ and not Norbert. Additionally, Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB indicate the system is too weak to classify or barely classifiable. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on Norbert as its remnants appear to have merged into a broader ITCZ circulation over the eastern Pacific Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.8N 106.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF NORBERT 12H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-10-10 04:41:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100241 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast, and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA. Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee Valley region. The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless, the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over the northeastern United States early next week. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther inland. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana near the path of Deltas center. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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