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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212041 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 Since this morning's advisory, the low-level swirl on which the Air Force reconnaissance plane made its last fix has apparently become the new center of circulation of the depression. A little bit of deep convection has developed over this new center during the past few hours, but on the whole there is very little convective activity in the central region of the circulation. The strongest and most persistent convection is located within a band that extends across the Cayman Islands toward western Cuba. An ASCAT pass from this morning showed winds of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the new center, so 30 kt remains the initial intensity on this advisory. It is a bit of a mystery why the depression has struggled to develop much central convection, given a seemingly low-shear environment and warm waters. Since these conditions are expected to continue for the next few days, intensification is still indicated in the official forecast, although the rate of strengthening has been muted a bit while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula given its current structure. After the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, many of the models still show the cyclone reaching hurricane intensity in about 3 days, including the intensity consensus, and that possibility is still shown in the NHC forecast. By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by 30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The official forecast has been reduced at that time, although it's noteworthy to mention that it still lies above all the guidance on day 4. Now that there is more confidence in the initial position, the new motion estimate is a little to the right from before, but still toward the northwest, or 325/11 kt. A deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to be shoved aside by the Atlantic subtropical ridge building westward over the next 2 days. Even with this pattern change, the cyclone is expected to move generally northwestward for the entire 5-day forecast period. However, there has been a notable westward bend in some of the track models, (particularly the GFS and ECMWF) from days 3-5, which is likely due those models having a weaker cyclone steered more by the low-level ridge at that time. Since the NHC intensity forecast is mirroring this particular model trend, the track forecast has been shifted westward from the previous prediction on days 4 and 5 toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The track forecast is still of rather low confidence, with the spread among the model guidance being larger than normal at every forecast time period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could still be near hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated Sunday and Monday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 18.6N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 21.2N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 22.9N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 24.6N 90.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 26.2N 92.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 28.5N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 30.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-08-21 22:32:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-08-21 16:56:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center. Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast. The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period, with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios. The structure of the depression aside, the environment still appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2 and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA, HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of 30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to diminish today. 2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-08-21 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211456 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near 40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these uncertainties. With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainly west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressure system over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western periphery of the high. The official track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and is on the northern side of the guidance suite. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm laura

Tropical Storm Genevieve Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-08-21 16:36:24| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2020

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

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