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Remnants of Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-08-16 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162033 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Josephine Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 The low-level swirl seen in visible satellite imagery has become less defined this afternoon, and ASCAT surface wind data that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory indicated that Josephine had degenerated into a trough of low pressure. As a result, this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The ASCAT revealed a small area of 30-kt winds along the northeast side of the trough axis, and that will be the initial wind speed for this advisory. The remnants are forecast to continue encountering a hostile upper-level wind environment over the next couple of days and re-generation of the system is not expected during that time. The strong upper-level winds are forecast to decrease later in the week, but it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. The remnants are moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and should turn northwestward and northward over the next couple of days as a low- to mid-level trough moves near the southeastern U.S. coast. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.9N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-16 22:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162033 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression has been devoid of organized deep convection for the past 24 hours and at the moment completely lacks any convection. Therefore the depression has become post-tropical as a non-convective remnant low. A recent ASCAT overpass showed the vortex is winding down and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. There are no indications that the atmospheric conditions that led to the demise of the depression will change much over the next few days. Therefore, regeneration of the system appears unlikely. The remnant low of the depression is moving northwestward at 3 kt. The low is forecast to move slowly over the next few days before it dissipates, making a gradual turn to the west, then west-southwest and perhaps southwest. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0600Z 14.5N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 14.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 14.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 14.2N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 13.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 12.6N 140.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-16 22:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night. Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-16 16:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161451 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Josephine Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Strong vertical wind shear has continued to take a toll on Josephine, with the exposed center continuing to race well ahead of the primary convective mass. A new burst of convection has developed a little closer to the center within the past couple of hours, but with the continued loss of organization the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. With strong shear forecast to prevail over the cyclone during the next few days, continued weakening is expected and Josephine will likely become a remnant low within 24 hours or dissipate by opening into a trough of low pressure. Although the shear could lessen somewhat in a few days, it appears that there will not be much left of the system to take advantage of those conditions. As a result, the new NHC forecast calls for the dissipation of the remnant low by 96 hours. Josephine jogged a bit westward overnight, but the longer term motion is 285/11 kt. The system is forecast to turn northwestward over the next 24-36 hours as the ridge over the western Atlantic weakens due to an approaching trough of low pressure. As the low- to mid-level trough moves offshore of the southeastern United States, this should cause Josephine or it remnants to turn northward on Tuesday. The updated track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory, primarily to more southward and westward initial position, however, it still lies near the middle of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.4N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 21.3N 66.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 22.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 23.9N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 25.5N 69.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 26.8N 69.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 28.2N 68.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-16 16:47:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161446 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 At the moment the depression is nearly devoid of convection, except for a very small weakening burst over 100 n mi from the center. In fact, there has not been any deep convection within 50 n mi of the center since yesterday, and this convection has been sporadic. The available Dvorak T-numbers only support 25 kt. However, given that an earlier ASCAT overpass had a few vectors with higher values, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is barely fitting the definition of a tropical cyclone due to the lack of persistent organized deep convection. If the system is not able to generate sustained organized convection, it could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest this lack of persistent convection may continue, and therefore the official forecast no longer keeps the system a tropical cyclone through 5 days. The official intensity forecast is generally in line with the intensity consensus aids throughout the 5 day time period, but makes the cyclone post-tropical in a couple of days. It should be noted that the timing of the system becoming post-tropical is highly uncertain and could happen much sooner or later than indicated. The cyclone is moving slowly north-northwestward at 3 kt. A weak low- to -mid level ridge is forecast to build north of the cyclone over the next couple of days. This should result in a slow motion while the depression turns to the northwest, then west. By midweek, a more west-southwestward motion is anticipated. The latest NHC forecast is is in between the previous one and the track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.7N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.3N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.4N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.3N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 13.9N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 13.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 12.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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