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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-16 10:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160841 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the next several days, so no change in strength is called for during the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days. This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the period. This is in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-16 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Although Kyle continues to lose its overall tropical appearance, a burst of deep convection redeveloped, albeit sheared to the northeast of the low-level center, which is close enough to the center to still the system classified as a tropical cyclone. ASCAT-A/-B passes at 2333Z/0047Z easily supported winds of 35 kt south through southwest of the center and, allowing for some slight undersampling, the initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 kt. The initial motion is 075/17 kt. There is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Kyle is expected to continue moving east-northeastward tonight and Sunday morning, maintaining that eastward motion until the cyclone is absorbed into a larger extratropical low in a couple of days. The official forecast similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies near the center of the NHC track guidance envelope. Kyle's low-level center is becoming increasingly stretched out northeast-to-southwest and the earlier burst of deep convection has also recently begun to wane, succumbing to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear. Thus, Kyle is not long for this world, with the cyclone expected to lose all convection within the next 6 to 12 hours, and continue to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning. It is highly possible that the next advisory could be the last forecast on Kyle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 40.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 40.6N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z 41.1N 53.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 41.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center. Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only recently become well defined, but my best guess is north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-16 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. The deep convection that was located along the southern side of the circulation earlier today has nearly completely dissipated, and the system currently looks like an ITCZ low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity is held generously at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone is currently experiencing strong northeasterly wind shear, and given that the shear is expected to remain strong for another day or so, this system could degenerate into a remnant low during that time. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that, and if the depression survives, it could linger for several more days. The models show little change in strength, and the NHC prediction keeps the system steady in intensity through the forecast period. Since the depression is caught in weak steering currents between a low pressure system to its east-northeast and a narrow ridge to its northwest, it has not moved much during the past several hours. As the low east-northeast of the system pulls northward, the weak depression, or its remnants, should generally drift northwestward during the next couple of days and then southwestward after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 13.1N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 13.6N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 13.2N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 12.7N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-15 22:34:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 889 WTNT41 KNHC 152034 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine continues to feel the effects of westerly shear, and the low cloud swirl denoting the center is partly exposed at the western edge of the convection. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the earlier recon flight, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Animation of satellite imagery suggests that the low-level circulation is at best barely closed, but there is insufficient evidence right now to justify a downgrade to a tropical wave. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system near 0000Z. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. It sounds like a broken record, but there is little change to either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. For the next 36-48 h, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward on the southwest side of the subtropical ridge. After that, the system is forecast to recurve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the ridge. As before, the new NHC forecast lies near the the center of the tightly-clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h which should cause the system to weaken. The intensity forecast, which assumes some sort of closed circulation will last for 5 days, now calls for the system to weaken to a depression between 24-36 h and become a remnant low by 60 h. An alternative scenario is that the system degenerates to a tropical wave, which could occur at almost any time given the state of the circulation. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it remains unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of those favorable conditions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 20.0N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.8N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 23.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 24.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 26.3N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 28.0N 69.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 30.5N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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