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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-16 16:46:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-16 16:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 708 WTPZ41 KNHC 161444 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 Deep convection with cloud tops at around -70 C has persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours. All available Dvorak T-numbers have been on the increase, and an initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak estimates from both SAB and TAFB. This makes the cyclone the sixth tropical storm of the 2020 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Fausto is crossing the 26 C SST isotherm and is expected to reach waters cooler than 24 C by Monday morning. Therefore it is likely that we are witnessing Fausto's peak intensity now. With the cooler waters, the convection should gradually decrease and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 2 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Fausto has increased its forward speed a bit and is now moving northwestward at around 13 kt. A slightly faster forward speed and a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected through tonight along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the cyclone loses its convection, it should turn westward or just south of westward as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 20.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-16 10:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160847 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery and earlier ASCAT data indicate that Kyle's circulation has become very elongated, and the center has become ill defined. Model analyses and satellite imagery also suggest that the low is now attached to a prominent warm/stationary front to its east and a weaker trailing cold front to its southwest. Therefore, Kyle has become an extratropical low, and its maximum winds are estimated to be 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Global models indicate that Kyle's winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of days, with the system dissipating or becoming absorbed by another area of low pressure in about 48 hours. The initial motion is eastward, or 080/17 kt. Since Kyle is embedded in zonal mid-latitude flow, this general heading and speed are expected to continue during the next day or two until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 40.0N 58.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1800Z 40.4N 55.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0600Z 40.4N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 39.9N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-16 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Josephine's low-level center has raced out over 100 n mi to the west of a remnant area of deep convection, which itself is shrinking and becoming more disorganized. Due to the loss of organization, it is assumed that Josephine's maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which matches the latest Current Intensity estimates. Analyses from the UW-CIMSS indicate that Josephine is now being pounded by about 35 kt of southwesterly shear, and a zone of even higher shear exists to the northwest of the cyclone. Therefore, continued weakening is expected, and Josephine could lose all of its organized deep convection and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC forecast holds a remnant low after 36 hours until the end of the forecast period, but it is entirely possible that the hostile conditions will cause Josephine to dissipate at any time, with the circulation opening up into a trough. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, although this heading is a bit to the left of the previous motion, suggesting even further that Josephine is becoming a shallower cyclone steered by lower-level winds. Still, there should be enough low- to mid-level troughing moving off the U.S. east coast later today and on Monday to cause Josephine, or its remnants, to recurve toward the north and northeast by day 5. The track guidance agrees on this scenario, although the newest official forecast is a little slower and to the right of the previous prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the north of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.3N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.1N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 23.8N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 25.4N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 28.2N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-16 10:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 041 WTPZ41 KNHC 160843 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The satellite presentation of the cyclone consists mainly of a circular area of deep convection with little evidence of banding features. Scatterometer data suggest that the system is just below tropical storm strength. Some slight strengthening could occur today while the cyclone is over marginally warm waters. However, in 1-2 days, SSTs should drop below 24 deg C, and this should cause the system to weaken into a remnant low in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast is close to the corrected consensus model prediction. Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the depression is estimated to be moving north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Over the next day or two, the cyclone is expected to move northwestward to west-northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. Later in the forecast period, the weakening system will likely turn westward or a little south of westward as it moves in the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC forecast and about in the middle of the track guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.4N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 23.3N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 24.4N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 24.7N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 24.3N 130.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 23.8N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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