Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Depression Willa Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-10-24 10:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the cyclone will likely have dissipated by then. Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms occurring to the east and south of the center. Key Messages: 1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-10-24 04:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240231 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Satellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed the coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Mazatlan. Willa made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt. The hurricane is already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually fade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the initial intensity is set at 100 kt. Willa is forecast to move farther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting in rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone will no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate. Satellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the northeast a little faster, about 15 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in forward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should continue within the hurricane warning area during the next several hours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico. 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 
 

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-10-23 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Willa's earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have finally ended with the erosion of the small inner eye and the outer eye becoming better defined in microwave data. The eye has also warmed and become more evident in infrared and visible satellite imagery this afternoon. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that flew into Willa earlier today measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 109 kt in the southeast quadrant and SFMR winds of around 100 kt. Since the aircraft was only able to perform a single pass through each quadrant, there is likely some undersampling so the initial wind speed is set at 105 kt. Satellite and the earlier aircraft fixes show that Willa is moving a little faster toward the north-northeast, or around 030/9 kt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough that is passing near the Baja California peninsula. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in showing that the center of Willa will reach the coast of west-central Mexico very soon, and then track inland over central Mexico tonight and Wednesday. The track guidance envelope has not changed much this cycle, and no significant changes were needed to the previous official track. Although the satellite presentation of Willa has improved somewhat this afternoon, little change in strength is expected before the hurricane reaches the coast of Mexico. Increasing southwesterly shear and the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will cause Willa to rapidly weaken after it moves inland tonight and Wednesday. A 24-h forecast point is provided for continuity, but it is unlikely that the low-level circulation will survive its passage over the mountainous terrain for that long of a time period. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along the coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds will also extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-10-23 17:03:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231503 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Willa's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during the past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and and an outer eyewall. Recent microwave data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that concentric eyewalls are present. The reconnaissance aircraft just completed its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane reported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than previously estimated. Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The plane should provide a more accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its mission during the new few hours. Willa is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt. A shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California peninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward this morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by tonight. The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within the next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Although Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing southwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the hurricane approaches the coast. Despite the forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico. After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken over the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas and the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along the coast of west- central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds will also extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-10-23 16:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231433 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente crossed the coast of the Mexican state of Michoacan a little while ago, and is now inland. The system, if in fact it still has a center, lacks sufficient organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore Vicente has become a post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory on this system. The motion is around 330/10 kt. A 12-hour forecast point is shown for continuity, but the cyclone will probably have dissipated by that time. Vicente's remnants, along with southwesterly flow around the larger circulation of Hurricane Willa, will probably continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico into Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 102.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion forecast vicente

 

Sites : [440] [441] [442] [443] [444] [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] [452] [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] next »