Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-10-22 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the low-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather elongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is expected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show the cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a depression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but it wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner. Regardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. The initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09. Vicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through dissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large, as they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this cycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of the previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.9N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-10-22 04:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220232 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening. Satellite images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane in less than 48 hours. Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion estimated to be 340/6 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches the system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. On the forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal environmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short term. However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall replacement cycles. The models then show a gradual increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless, Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance through dissipation. Key Messages: 1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 
 

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-10-21 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the low-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt. North-northeasterly vertical wind shear should prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global models show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days. The official forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a depression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model consensus. Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown here. The storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9 kt. Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 97.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-10-21 22:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212034 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Willa has continued to rapidly strengthen with the eye becoming very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The surrounding convective tops warmed around mid-day but have cooled since that time and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 102 and 90 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively at 18Z. With the continued increase in organization since that time, the initial intensity is set near the upper end of the estimates or 100 kt. Willa continues moving slowly north-northwestward or 330/5 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy over the past few advisories. The hurricane is expected to turn northward tonight or Monday around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico over mainland Mexico. A mid-level trough that is forecast to approach the Baja California peninsula Monday night and Tuesday should cause Willa to turn north- northeastward and recurve around the northwestern portion of the aforementioned ridge. There are still some differences in how quickly Willa will recurve, but there is little cross-track spread in the guidance. This increases the overall confidence in the NHC track forecast, which calls for the hurricane to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The low shear and warm ocean environment ahead of Willa is expected to remain quite favorable for strengthening for at least another 12 to 24 hours, and additional intensification is likely tonight and early Monday. The new NHC track intensity forecast is above all the intensity guidance through 36 hours, and now calls for a peak intensity of 130 kt within that time period. After that time, eyewall replacement cycles could result in some fluctuations in intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear on Tuesday could result in some weakening, but Willa is expected to approach the coast of Mexico as a very dangerous hurricane. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico should occur. A 96-hour forecast point is shown for continuity but the system is likely to dissipate before that time. Key Messages: 1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and life-threatening flash flooding. A Hurricane Watch and tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for a portion of the area. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.0N 107.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-10-21 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211443 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 First-light GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that Willa continues to become better organized, with a tightly coiled band of convection wrapping around the center. There has also been evidence of a small eye in recent microwave and infrared satellite pictures. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 77 kt to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory. Willa is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. The track guidance continues to indicate that Willa will move northwestward today, then turn northward on Monday, and then head north-northeastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico and an approaching mid-level trough. The dynamical model guidance remains in good overall agreement on this scenario, but there are differences in how quickly Willa will accelerate north-northeastward. The UKMET and ECMWF are much slower than the remainder of the dynamical models, with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean the fastest. The NHC track forecast brings the center of the Willa onshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 h, and it lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is a little faster than the other consensus aids. The hurricane is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear and over warm waters of around 28 degrees Celsius during the next day or two. These very favorable conditions are expected to allow steady to rapid strengthening through Monday night, and the NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance. By 48 hours, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to initiate weakening, but Willa is likely to remain a very strong hurricane through landfall in southwestern Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico should occur. Key Messages: 1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening flash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for a portion of the area. Residents in the watch areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 106.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [443] [444] [445] [446] [447] [448] [449] [450] [451] [452] [453] [454] [455] [456] [457] [458] [459] [460] [461] [462] next »