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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-10-21 16:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation. There is little evidence of banding features at this time. The current intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. North-northeasterly vertical shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of days. Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the land mass of Mexico by mid-week. Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west, and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it. Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-10-21 10:57:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210857 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the west-northwest on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger circulation. Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-10-21 10:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Willa has continued to rapidly intensify based on a well-defined CDO with an intermittent pinhole eye evident in high-resolution GOES-16 infrared (IR) satellite imagery. Upper-level outflow has become well established in all quadrants. The intensity is difficult to ascertain since satellite intensity estimates vary widely based on the scene type used and also the small size of the hurricane. TAFB and SAB both provided an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, whereas UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON were 67 kt and 56 kt, respectively. In contrast, NHC objective T-numbers are T5.0/90 kt using an embedded center and as high as T6.0/115 kt using a pinhole eye. Given that the eye has not been maintained in IR imagery, the advisory intensity of 75 kt lies between the subjective TAFB/SAB estimate and lower NHC objective estimate. Willa is moving at 315/06 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. Willa is forecast to continue moving northwestward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday, with a motion toward the northeast expected on Tuesday as the hurricane gradually rounds the western periphery of the deep-layer ridge. By late Tuesday, Willa is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be approaching Baja California, resulting in landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday. The latest 00Z model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, and only minor forward speed adjustments were required. A 96-h position has been provided only for continuity purposes, and Willa will likely have dissipated over the Mexican mountains by then. Willa's small inner-core wind field along with ideal environmental conditions consisting of low shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs of 28 deg C should allow the hurricane to continue to rapidly intensify for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity by early Tuesday due to expected cold upwelling beneath the slow-moving hurricane. In 60-72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is expected to induce steady weakening until landfall occurs. Rapid dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will occur after landfall. The official intensity forecast is a tad above the consensus models HCCA and FSSE, and is little below the robust Navy COAMPS-TC model forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR WNCTRL MEXICO 96H 25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND NCNTRL MEXICO 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Willa Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-10-21 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Willa has rapidly intensified since genesis occurred last night, and it is almost a hurricane. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that banding features have become well established in all quadrants and the inner core has continued to organize. There is still no evidence of an eye feature, however. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports increasing the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The latest satellite fixes indicate that Willa is now moving northwestward at about 5 kt. The storm is expected to gradually turn to the right as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. In response, a northwestward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. After that time, a faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected when a shortwave trough approaches the system. The latest model guidance, except for the UKMET, show Willa making a sharper northward turn and at a faster pace. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. This forecast is again faster than the previous one and shows Willa making landfall over west-central Mexico in 72 to 96 hours. The storm has taken advantage of near ideal environmental conditions of very low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm 29 deg C SSTs. These conditions are expected to prevail for another couple of days, and that should allow Willa to continue to strengthen rapidly. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices show about 90 percent chance of RI continuing during the next 24 hours. Based on this information and the latest model guidance, the NHC intensity forecast shows Willa becoming a major hurricane in a day or so. Some weakening is likely before Willa reaches the coast due to an increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture, but Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coastline. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to interaction with the rugged terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 15.7N 106.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-10-21 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl producing intermittent bursts of deep convection. We have expected an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24 hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours, based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente. While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased since earlier today. The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.8N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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