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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 66

2018-10-12 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 122036 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Leslie remains a well organized tropical cyclone, with a fairly symmetric central dense overcast, and hints of an eye in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. A 1738 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass shows that there is some northeast to southwest tilt, due to an increase in westerly shear. Some slight weakening is foreast tonight while Leslie moves over cool SSTs of 23 to 24 degrees Celsius and into an area of increasing westerly shear. However, Leslie is forecast to transition into a powerful hurricane- force post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours as it interacts with an approaching trough. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula shortly thereafter, and it should weaken due to land interaction after that time. The system is forecast to dissipate inland by Monday. Leslie continues to race across the far eastern Atlantic, with an initial motion estimate of 070/30 kt. The global models are now unanimous in taking Leslie quickly east-northeastward on the south side of a strong longwave trough over the northeast Atlantic. The official track foreast as been adjusted northward and is significantly faster than before, and brings the center of Leslie over the coast of the Iberian Peninsula by 0000 UTC Sunday. The system is likely to dissipate over the high terrain of Spain within a couple of days, but a 48-h forecast point is shown for continuity. Now that the track guidance is in much better agreement, confidence in the NHC track forecast has increased. After coordination with the meteorological services of Portugal and Spain, they have decided to provide information on the wind hazard with local products. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds on Saturday to portions of Portugal as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds are also likely to affect portions of western Spain. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-10-12 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122033 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Nadine is now completely exposed to the west of a waning area of deep convection due to 35-40 kt of southwesterly shear. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt. This could be a little generous, but hopefully ASCAT will sample the system later this evening to provide a better idea of how much the winds have weakened. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one, and now shows Nadine becoming a depression by 12 hours and a remnant low by 24 hours, but both could happen sooner. The now shallow cyclone has turned west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 285/13. Nadine and its remnants should move quickly westward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation. The new NHC track is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.4N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.5N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.7N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Remnants of Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 54

2018-10-12 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 122032 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Sergio Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Sergio moved over the high terrain of northwestern Mexico and no longer has a well-defined circulation center. On this basis, NHC has issued the last advisory on this system. The remnants of Sergio will move toward the northeast about 22 kt and could still produce gusty winds in heavy squalls. Sergio's remnants will continue to produce heavy rains which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in northwestern Mexico. Flash flooding is also possible across the U.S. Desert Southwest and the Southern Plains through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO 12H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 53

2018-10-12 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Sergio crossed the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and is now moving over the Sea of Cortez. The convection has weakened and is displaced to the north of the still vigorous low-level circulation. Based on observations from the automatic stations of the Mexican Navy, the initial intensity is 35 kt. The effect of the high terrain and shear will result in additional weakening, and Sergio will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon and dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Sergio is moving toward the northeast at 20 kt embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This track should continue until dissipation in about 12 hours over Northwestern Mexico. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, portions of the desert southwest and the U.S. Southern Plains through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-10-12 16:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 121442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Strong southwesterly shear has caused the center of Nadine to become well removed from the deep convection this morning. Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, the center has become further removed from the convection since that time, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt for this advisory. The strong southwesterly shear is expected to persist over Nadine through the weekend, which should result in steady weakening and dissipation of the system by Sunday, if not sooner. Nadine took a northwestward jog overnight, but now appears to have resumed a west-northwestward heading at about 7 kt. As the storm weakens and becomes a shallower system it should turn westward and accelerate within the low-level trade wind flow. The more northward initial position has required a northward adjustment in the NHC track forecast, but the new forecast again takes Nadine westward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.0N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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