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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-05 16:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 445 WTNT42 KNHC 051432 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Gordon continues to weaken as it passes near Jackson, Mississippi, and the initial intensity has been reduced to a possibly generous 25 kt. Additional weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther inland, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area in about 48 h. The remnant low is then expected to become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone over the central United States by Saturday. Although Gordon has weakened, the threat of heavy rainfall and flooding will continue for the next few days. The initial motion estimate is 320/12. Gordon should continue northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 h as it moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge. After that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn northward and northeastward as it recurves into the westerlies. The new forecast track is similar to the previous one. However, during the first 48 h it lies to the east of the various consensus models due to a westward shift in the guidance since the last advisory. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gordon. Future information on Gordon can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Even though Gordon is weakening, heavy rainfall will continue to affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 32.3N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 33.3N 91.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/1200Z 33.9N 92.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.3N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 37.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 39.5N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-05 10:57:09| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-05 10:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 243 WTNT42 KNHC 050854 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 Gordon is moving farther inland and continues to weaken. Surface synoptic observations suggest that the cyclone is now of, at most, minimal tropical storm strength. These tropical-storm-force winds may be occurring over a small inland area near the center. Continued weakening is expected, and Gordon should become a tropical depression later this morning. Gordon continues moving northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 325/12. The cyclone should continue on a northwestward heading with a decrease in forward speed, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge, for the next couple of days. Later in the period, Gordon's remnant is forecast to turn northward and northeastward with increasing forward speed as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies north of 40N. the official forecast track is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. All coastal watches and warnings associated with Gordon are being discontinued at this time. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early Saturday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 31.5N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 32.4N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 33.4N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1800Z 34.1N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 93.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z 36.7N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 39.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-09-05 10:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 485 WTNT41 KNHC 050848 TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 Conventional satellite enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0511 UTC GMI color composite microwave pass reveal improved inner core structure with impressive outer banding over the eastern semicircle. Dvorak intensity estimates have again increased, and the initial intensity is once more increased to 90 kt, which also agrees with the latest SATCON analysis. This intensity forecast is still a bit murky. The deterministic models show increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a less than favorable mid-tropospheric thermodynamic environment affecting the tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. This less-than-conducive environment should induce weakening during this time frame. Thereafter, and through the remaining forecast, most of the models show a mid- to upper-level low developing to the south of Florence in the base of the mid- Atlantic deep-layer trough, which should promote a somewhat more favorable diffluent upper wind pattern. This more conducive upper wind pattern, and increasing sea surface temperatures, is expected to cause Florence to restrengthen. The NHC forecast is a little bit higher than the previous one between the 48 and 96 hr periods to agree more with the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus forecasts. Florence is estimated to be moving northwestward, or 305/11 kt, which appears to be a temporary trochoidal eyewall wobble. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and this general motion is expected to continue through day 4 while the hurricane is steered by the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, Florence is expected to turn northwestward and slow down as it enters a break in the ridge. The ECMWF model track forecast has shifted significantly toward the left this evening, closer to the other global models and their ensemble means, indicating less steering influence from the predicted growing weakness in the subtropical ridge. Subsequently, an adjustment to the left of of the previous advisory, beyond 48 hours, was made in order to nudge closer to the guidance suite and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 46.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 24.2N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 24.9N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 25.6N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 28.7N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-09-05 04:58:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 727 WTNT42 KNHC 050258 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 Aircraft and radar imagery shows that the center of Gordon is making landfall just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border. The radar imagery has shown an increase in convection around the center within the past couple of hours, and Doppler velocities have increased to 65-75 kt at about 2500 feet. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 63 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 60 kt. A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has recently reported sustained winds of 49 kt with a gust to 63 kt. Once the center moves inland, Gordon should rapidly weaken and it is forecast to become a tropical depression on Wednesday morning. Gordon moved a little right of the previous forecast track this evening, but the most recent aircraft fixes suggest the center has jogged back toward the left. The longer-term motion estimate is 315/12 kt. A large deep-layer ridge located over the eastern United States is forecast to steer Gordon northwestward at a slower forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northward, then northeastward around the western periphery of the ridge. The updated NHC track is again close to a blend of the various consensus aids, but is a little right of previous forecast for the first 24-36 hours, primarily due to the slightly more eastward initial position. Key Messages: 1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast, where a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. The highest storm surge is expected along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama from Biloxi to Dauphin Island tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions and storm surge will also affect portions of the western Florida Panhandle. 2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding in portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 30.3N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 31.5N 89.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 32.7N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 33.5N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 34.3N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 36.0N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 38.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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