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Tropical Storm Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-09-02 10:51:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-09-02 10:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 838 WTNT41 KNHC 020851 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018 Florence continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave imagery from a recent AMSR overpass indicates that a majority of the deep convection is located in the northern semicircle of the tropical storm, but its center is still well embedded within the central dense overcast. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB supports increasing the intensity to 50 kt. Some additional slight strengthening is still expected over the next day or so while Florence remains in a light shear environment and over marginal SSTs. Beginning in about 3 days, slow weakening is forecast due to an expected increase in wind shear associated with an extensive mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The intensity guidance is in generally good agreement through 120 h, and the official forecast remains near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now 290/13. The track guidance is fairly tightly packed for the first 48 h or so, with the spread increasing more quickly beyond that time. For the next couple of days, the subtropical ridge should keep Florence moving westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed. By day 3, a west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast to begin, as the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough influences the track of the tropical storm. While all of the global models show this general scenario, the extent to which Florence will gain latitude is less certain. A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the northwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a more westward to west-northwestward track. For now, the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to all of the consensus models. This track is also generally in line with the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker system than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a stronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.5N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.5N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.1N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 22.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 24.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-09-02 04:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 893 WTNT41 KNHC 020254 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018 Florence continues to become better organized, with a circular central dense overcast and a complex of outer bands in all quadrants except the southwest. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35-55 kt, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Given the overall good appearance in satellite imagery, it is possible this is conservative. For the next 2 days or so, Florence should remain in a light shear environment over sea surface temperatures near 26C. Most of the guidance shows some slow strengthening, and the intensity forecast follows suit. After 48 h, the cyclone should reach warmer water and encounter southwesterly shear, and this combination is expected to result in little change in strength during this period. The intensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous advisory and remains near the consensus aids. Considering the lack of shear and the good structure, though, it would not be surprising if Florence got a little stronger than forecast during the next couple of days. The initial motion is 290/12. The track guidance suggests a general west-northwestward motion should continue for the next 3-4 days as Florence is steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. Near the end of the forecast period, a more northwestward motion is expected. Despite the relatively straightforward steering pattern, there is a significant spread in the track guidance even by 72 h, with the Canadian model on the far right side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF on the left side, and the other dynamical models loosely clustered in between. However, the overall guidance envelope has changed little since the last advisory, and the new track forecast lies near both the center of the envelope and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.0N 30.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.5N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.1N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 17.6N 37.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.2N 40.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 20

2018-09-02 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 602 WTPZ41 KNHC 020236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Norman looked a little ragged in satellite imagery near 0000 UTC. Since that time, though, the hurricane looks better organized, with the eyewall convection better defined in visible and infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 90 kt. The initial motion is now 280/11. The hurricane is expected to be steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north, resulting in a generally west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is expected as Norman approaches a weakness in the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance at days 4-5, with the HWRF on the north side of the guidance envelope showing a northwestward turn and the GFS on the south side showing a more westward motion. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just to the south of the center of the guidance envelope. Norman is expected to be in a light shear environment for 48-72 h. However, during this time the cyclone will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass. Based on the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 24 h followed by a gradual weakening from 24-72 h. After 72 h, increasing southerly shear should cause a faster weakening. It should be noted that there is a chance that Norman could get stronger than forecast while over warm water during the next 12-18 h as indicated by the HWRF and HMON models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 23.0N 150.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-09-02 04:31:43| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

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