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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-03 10:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 569 WTNT41 KNHC 030850 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 The structure of Florence has recovered overnight. Several recent microwave images indicate that the tropical storm's center is still dislocated to the south of most of the associated convection, but convective banding has increased. There is also evidence that Florence has developed better defined low-level inner-core. Satellite intensity estimates have increased and now range from 45 to 60 kt. As a compromise of the various estimates, the initial intensity has been raised slightly to 50 kt, but its worth noting that this increase is within the noise level of our ability to observe the intensity of tropical storms over the open ocean. Based on SHIPS diagnostics, the southwesterly shear affecting Florence could remain moderate for the next 12 h, and some slight intensification is possible. However, by 24 h, an increase in the shear should kick off a gradual weakening trend. By the end of the forecast period, the tropical storm is forecast to re-intensify while it moves over warmer SSTs and the environmental shear decreases. Given the improved current structure of Florence, the new official intensity forecast shows slight intensification for the first 12 h. Beyond that time, the models are in good agreement and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the relatively tight intensity guidance envelope. The tropical storm is still moving west-northwestward, at an estimated 14 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion is forecast by all the global models for the next couple of days. By the end of the forecast period, nearly all of the guidance shows a turn toward the northwest, and the main source of uncertainty in the track forecast continues to be exactly when and to what extent Florence will make this turn. At this point I have no reason to depart from the various consensus models, and the track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.0N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.3N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 18.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.3N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 24.5N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 26.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-03 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 349 WTPZ41 KNHC 030846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Its possible that Norman has peaked, perhaps permanently this time. Cloud tops have notably warmed around the eye, which itself has become less distinct in IR imagery overnight. The initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on trends over the past hour or two, it's possible Norman has weakened even more than indicated. All of the intensity guidance suggests that Norman should steadily weaken over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, moderate shear, and a drier surrounding environment, though this was the case last night as well shortly before Norman quickly re-intensified to major hurricane strength. Since another sudden period of intensification doesn't appear imminent, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the consensus through day 5, and only minor changes were made from the previous advisory. The estimated initial motion is now 285/17 kt. Norman should continue moving very quickly toward the central Pacific over the next 24 hours as it is steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. By later this week, all of the global models forecast that the hurricane will slow down, and then turn toward the northwest toward a weakness in the ridge. There is still a fair amount of spread in the track guidance, particularly regarding the speed of Norman after it begins to turn northwestward around day 4 or 5, so confidence is in this portion of the track forecast is low. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly south of the previous advisory for the first 72 h, following the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids, but is fairly similar after that. Based on the current forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central Pacific later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.0N 134.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-03 10:45:22| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-03 04:52:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 235 WTNT42 KNHC 030252 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 There has been little change in the organization of the disturbance since the previous advisory. Satellite imagery shows that some new convective bands have formed to the northeast of the trough axis, but there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation at this time. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent surface observations. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday to give a better assessment of the structure and intensity of the system. The disturbance will be moving over warm waters and within an area of generally low vertical wind shear. These conditions should allow gradual development of the system over the next day or so. The global model guidance indicates that the surface trough will sharpen and that a closed surface circulation is likely to develop in association with the system over the Gulf of Mexico within the next 24-36 hours. Once this occurs, the system is expected to continue to gradually strengthen until it reaches the north-central Gulf coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The intensity guidance did not change much this cycle and neither has the latest official forecast. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that is centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. On this heading, the disturbance is expected to pass over the Florida Keys or the southern Florida peninsula tomorrow morning, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night before approaching the north-central Gulf coast late Tuesday or Tuesday night. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, however, since the system is still in the pre-genesis phase future changes regarding the exact track and timing of the onset of hazards are possible. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. 2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor products from their local National Weather Service office. 3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential tropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 23.4N 78.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/1200Z 24.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 25.9N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 27.5N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 31.7N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0000Z 33.2N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0000Z 34.2N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-03 04:39:21| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018
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