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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-09-03 22:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 443 WTPZ41 KNHC 032038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Visible satellite images continues to depict a fairly symmetric hurricane with a ragged eye, however, a 1615 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the eye was open over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Dvorak data T-numbers are slowly decreasing, and a consensus of the various objective and subjective Dvorak CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt. Norman is forecast to move over marginally warm SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment during the next couple of days. Since the shear is expected to remain fairly low over the hurricane, weakening is anticipated to be gradual through mid-week. After that time, a significant increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause a more rapid rate of filling. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Norman is moving quickly westward or 280/17 kt. The hurricane is being steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north and it should keep Norman on a westward heading with some decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days. A weakness in the ridge near 150W should cause Norman to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward after 72 hours. There is still considerable spread in the model guidance as to exactly when and where the turn will take place. The NHC track forecast is again close to the consensus models at the longer range, but the overall guidance envelope changed little, so the updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.5N 138.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Olivia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-03 22:35:55| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-03 22:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 338 WTNT41 KNHC 032033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 Florence appears a little better organized than earlier today. Deep convection is slightly stronger near and to the north of the center, and the cloud pattern still resembles a central dense overcast. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications suggests a slightly higher wind speed, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 60 kt. The strong tropical storm is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 13 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The global models all show a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next several days due to a series of troughs moving across the Atlantic. In response, Florence is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a slight reduction in forward speed during the next several days. While there remains a fair amount of spread in the models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the right, or north, during the past few model cycles. The official track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Little change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear conditions. However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow weakening trend during the next few days. This weakening is in response to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear. Beyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore, slow strengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period. This forecast is slightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.4N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 21.5N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.7N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 28.0N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 26
2018-09-03 17:56:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 167 WTPZ41 KNHC 031556 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Corrected to remove G-IV flight reference for this afternoon Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term to account for the current intensity. Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean. However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it seems to be an outlier at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-03 16:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 618 WTNT42 KNHC 031455 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Surface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida, along with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that Gordon has continued to become organized this morning. The center of the cyclone passed over Key Largo between 1100-1200 UTC, producing a west wind in Islamorada and also at an observing site in Florida Bay. Doppler velocity data and surface observations support an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating Gordon. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The latest model guidance has shifted slightly to the right, but this is likely due to the more northerly initial position. Other than that, the models remain tightly packed and agree on a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48 hours right up until landfall as the strong ridge to the north of Gordon moves little. The new NHC forecast track was adjusted a little to the right of the previous advisory track, but not as far to the east as some of the model guidance out of respect for the reliable ECMWF deterministic run, which is located on the southern edge of the guidance and shows landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, a solution that is also supported by the new 0600Z short-range UKMET model run. Gordon's appearance in both radar and satellite imagery has continued to improve over the past several hours. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models indicate that westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is allegedly affecting Gordon, but there are no indications of that in satellite imagery that I can see. The cirrus outflow has continued to expand in all quadrants, so the analyzed westerly shear is likely an artifact of the small circulation being positioned so close to the strong trough located its west. Since Gordon will be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 30 deg C during the next 36-48 hours, and be near or underneath an upper-level anticyclone, steady strengthening seems likely. It is possible that Gordon could peak as a Category 1 hurricane after 36 hours, just before landfall occurs. For that reason, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN. Key Messages: 1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for these areas. 2. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge to portions of the central Gulf Coast and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi- Alabama border. Residents in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials and all preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for portions of the central Gulf Coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach those areas late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible in the watch area. 4. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 25.3N 81.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 26.5N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 28.1N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 29.9N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 31.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1200Z 33.9N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1200Z 34.8N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1200Z 37.6N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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