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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 58
2017-09-30 18:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301654 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 58...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Corrected for misspelled word Maria is on its way to becoming extratropical as cold air continues to wrap around the circulation. The cloud pattern has become elongated, while microwave data show that the low- and mid-level centers are rapidly becoming detached. However, Maria is still able to produce a small but concentrated area of deep convection just to the east of the center, and the maximum winds are still estimated at 50-kt. Maria should transition to an extratropical low by later today or tonight, and then it should be absorbed by a frontal zone in a couple of days. The track continues to be straightforward. Maria is embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow should steer the cyclone toward the east-northeast with increasing forward speed until dissipation or it is absorbed by a cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 40.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 45.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 47.5N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 49.0N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 58
2017-09-30 16:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301432 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Maria is on its way to becoming extratropical as cold air continues to wrap around the circulation. The cloud pattern has become elongated, while microwave data show that the low- and mid-level centers are rapidly becoming detached. However, Maria is still able to produce a small but concentrated area of deep convection just to the east of the center, and the maximum winds are still estimated at 50-kt. Maria should transition to an extratropical low by later today or tonight, and then it should be absorbed by a frontal zone in a couple of days. The track continues to be straightforward. Maria is embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow should steer the cyclone toward the east-northeast with increasing forward speed until dissipation or abortion by a cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 40.7N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 42.5N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 45.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 47.5N 26.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 49.0N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Forecast Discussion Number 49
2017-09-30 10:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300839 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Lee is now over water colder than 20 degrees Celsius and is being blasted by 35 kt of west-northwesterly shear, and it has not been producing deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone has therefore become post tropical, and this will be the last advisory. Without any deep convection, subjective and objective Dvorak numbers have decreased, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt. Lee continues to accelerate northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 050/44 kt. Continued acceleration is expected today, although the global model fields indicate that Lee's circulation will open up into a trough within the next 6 to 12 hours. A 12-hour point is provided in the official forecast for continuity's sake, but Lee will most likely have dissipated by then. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR. These forecasts are available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 46.7N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/1800Z 49.9N 24.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 57
2017-09-30 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300837 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Despite now being over sea surface temperatures of around 25 degrees Celsius, Maria is producing a persistent cluster of deep convection that is displaced to the east of the center due to 15 kt of west-northwesterly shear. Satellite imagery shows cold advection occurring within the western part of the cyclone's circulation behind an approaching cold front, heralding the beginning of Maria's extratropical transition. Based on global model guidance, this transition should be complete within 24 hours, and Maria's intensity is unlikely to change much up until that time due to baroclinic forcing. The extratropical low is likely to gradually weaken after 24 hours and become absorbed within a frontal zone by day 3, if not sooner. Maria is accelerating east-northeastward in the flow ahead of a positively tilted trough moving off the northeastern coast of North America, and the initial motion estimate is 070/28 kt. The trough should continue steering Maria even faster toward the east-northeast for the next couple of days. The GFS is significantly faster than the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models since it shows Maria becoming absorbed by the front much sooner. The NHC track forecast remains close to the latter models and is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts during Maria's post-tropical stages. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 39.6N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 41.3N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 43.8N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 46.6N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 48.9N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 56
2017-09-30 04:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Maria continues to gradually lose tropical cyclone characteristics as cool and dry air entrains into the western side of the circulation. However, a small area of convection remains to the east of the center, and recent microwave sounding data indicates the cyclone still has a warm core. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a combination of subjective satellite intensity estimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. Maria is now expected to become extratropical in about 24 h, and the system is likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low after the 48-h point. The initial motion is 070/27. Maria is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and should continue to move quickly east-northeast for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The NHC forecast, which is changed little from the previous advisory, incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 38.6N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 40.1N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 42.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 45.6N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 48.0N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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