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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-10-04 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 First light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not very well organized with little evidence of banding features. However, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some rainbands over the western portion of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. Ramon is experiencing strong easterly shear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the Texas/Mexico border. The dynamical model guidance indicate only a slight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only slight strengthening seems possible. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus. The center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial motion is 285/6 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly westward track over the next several days. The official forecast is a little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the models so this forecast is of low confidence. Although the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the northward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-10-04 11:03:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040903 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about 12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next 2-3 days. Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. The confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Discussion Draft Printable Comment Form
2017-10-03 23:20:54| PortlandOnline
A printable version of the online comment form. PDF Document, 821kbCategory: Residential Infill Project Discussion Draft
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Discussion Draft Summary
2017-10-03 21:56:00| PortlandOnline
Eight-page summary of Discussion Draft zoning code and map amendments, includes map of proposed a overlay zone and historically narrow lots rezoning. PDF Document, 1,636kbCategory: Residential Infill Project Discussion Draft
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Forecast Discussion Number 59
2017-09-30 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302035 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Active deep convection at the center of Maria appears to have ceased this morning after the cyclone crossed a sharp SST gradient, and SSTs below 23 deg C are unlikely to allow persistent convection to redevelop. Recent visible satellite imagery and data from a late arriving ASCAT pass at 1348 UTC indicate the presence of a sharp wind shift extending from near the center of Maria well to the northeast, suggesting that the cyclone has acquired frontal characteristics. Based on this, Maria is now classified as extratropical, and this is the last advisory. The earlier ASCAT data was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 45 kt. Maria has continued to move quickly toward the east-northeast, and all of the models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will continue on this track for the next day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation occurs within a larger frontal zone over the North Atlantic in about 48 hours. The NHC forecast incorporates guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 42.0N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 43.8N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 48.9N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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