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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 53

2017-09-29 10:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290846 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Maria is producing a relatively small cluster of deep convection that is displaced to the east of the center due to 15 kt of westerly shear. Scatterometer data from last evening showed some 45-kt wind vectors south of the center, so Maria's initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt, accounting for the low resolution of the ASCAT instruments. Maria will continue to move over waters of at least 26 degrees Celsius for at least the next 24-36 hours, although vertical shear will be increasing over the cyclone fairly soon. The first stages of extratropical transition are likely to begin later today, and baroclinic forcing could allow Maria to regain a little bit of strength, which is shown by both the GFS and ECMWF models over the next couple of days. Maria should be fully extratropical by 48 hours and then be absorbed within a frontal zone a little after 72 hours. Some of the global models, such as the GFS and UKMET, show this absorption occurring sooner than that. Maria is accelerating eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies with an initial motion of 085/18 kt. The cyclone should turn east-northeastward later today, ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada coast, with acceleration continuing up until the time Maria dissipates. Although the ECMWF model is an outlier and has a slower solution compared to the other guidance, the NHC track forecast remains close to the other models and the various consensus aids. The post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 37.2N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 37.9N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 39.8N 52.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 42.1N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 45.0N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 51.4N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 52

2017-09-29 04:43:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290243 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 The satellite presentation of Maria has degraded over the past 12 hours or so, with the area of deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming displaced to the east of the center due to some westerly shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, while the UW-CIMSS ADT is 50-55 kt. Based on the latter, the initial wind speed is maintained at 55 kt for this advisory. Maria is beginning to accelerate eastward, with an initial motion estimate of 080/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn east-northeastward on Friday ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. Maria should continue to accelerate east-northeastward to northeast over the north Atlantic on Saturday before it is absorbed by a frontal boundary over the northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. Maria is forecast to change little in intensity over the next day or so while it moves over marginal SSTs and remains in low to moderate shear conditions. After that time, baroclinic forcing and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone should again help Maria maintain its intensity until it completes extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The global models indicate that the extratropical low will weaken over the northeastern Atlantic by day 72 h, and be absorbed by a frontal system by day 4. The post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 37.1N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 37.5N 61.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 39.1N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 41.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 44.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 50.0N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Committee Preview of Discussion Draft

2017-09-29 04:33:04| PortlandOnline

This preview of the Discussion Draft is intended to support Committee discussions at their October meeting. PDF Document, 8,491kbCategory: Committee agendas and meeting summaries

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 44

2017-09-29 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the northern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center has become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the cloud canopy. A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak satellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of 70 kt. Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the next 36 hours. Afterward, the global models indicate that the system will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over the northern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM models. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt. The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward the northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow until dissipation occurs in 48 hours. The NHC forecast follows the TVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically an update of the previous track forecast. Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 36.3N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 39.1N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 43.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 47.6N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Anatel may cancel Oi licences, but postpones discussion

2017-09-29 02:00:00| Total Telecom industry news

Brazil's telecom regulator is still considering the possibility of cancelling the operating licences of fixed and mobile operator Oi, but it has pushed back the discussion on that issue in light of the telco's ongoing attempts to agree a recovery plan with creditors. Anatel on Thursday announced it removed the issue from its meeting agenda following Oi's announcement that it had won court approval to delay a creditor meeting scheduled for next month…read more on TotalTele.com »

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