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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 25
2017-10-15 11:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150900 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 Although the satellite appearance of Ophelia has been slowly degrading this morning, the cyclone remains an impressive hurricane due to it being over the relatively cool waters of the northeastern Atlantic. A testament to Ophelia's strength is a late arriving buoy report 25 nmi southeast of the center of the eye from around 0200Z, which indicated that the pressure in the southeastern portion of the large eye or eyewall was 970.9 mb. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have been steadily decreasing since that buoy report, so the intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. Ophelia continues to accelerate and the hurricane is now moving 050/30 kt. Water vapor imagery indicates that a deepening trough just to west of Ophelia is moving quickly eastward, and that the cyclone is now well embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of the trough. As a result, Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast by tonight and be accompanied by a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Ophelia reaching the southern coast of Ireland in 24-30 hours, and then move across the remainder of the country Monday night, and then move across Northern Ireland and northern Great Britain on Tuesday. Ophelia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours when extratropical transition should be completed, although the transition to an extratropical cyclone could occur as early as 12 hours. Regardless of the exact timing, post-tropical cyclone Ophelia is forecast to remain a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds when it reaches Ireland on Monday. The system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly thereafter. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK until Monday, strong winds and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 39.0N 18.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 43.0N 15.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 49.0N 11.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1800Z 54.0N 8.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0600Z 57.7N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0600Z 60.8N .1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-10-15 04:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150240 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 Ophelia remains an impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to exhibit a large well-defined eye within a ring of cold cloud tops. However, the overall cloud pattern has started to elongate and there has been a slight erosion of the area of cloud tops over the west and southwest portions of the circulation as dry air and a frontal boundary encroaches on the hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies continue to support an intensity of 100 kt. The aforementioned changes in the cloud pattern and an expansion of the wind field as noted by an earlier ASCAT overpass suggest that extratropical transition has begun. The wind field is expect to significantly expand over the next 12 to 24 hours, which is likely to lead to a gradual decrease in the maximum winds. Ophelia is forecast to complete extratropical transition within 24 hours, but it is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. The system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly thereafter. Ophelia is moving northeastward, or 055/24 kt ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward tonight, then turn north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed by late Sunday and Sunday night. After the system occludes in a couple of days, it should begin to slow down. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores tonight behind a cold front that has moved through the islands in the wake of Ophelia. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 37.3N 21.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-10-14 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142037 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 Ophelia continues to have an impressive appearance in satellite imagery. The eye has remained clear all afternoon, surrounded by a very symmetric ring of cold cloud tops. Since the cloud pattern has not changed significantly over the past few hours, the intensity has been held at 100 kt. Microwave imagery and scatterometer retrievals indicate that beneath the cold canopy, Ophelia's structure is beginning to deteriorate, at least slightly. A GMI overpass around 1700 UTC indicated that the vortex is beginning to tilt toward the east with height, probably a result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough to the west. Furthermore, a pair of earlier ASCAT passes suggested that an approaching cold front is already infringing on the NW quadrant of the circulation, within about 80 n mi of Ophelia's eye. Given the close proximity of the cold front and upper-level trough, extratropical transition will likely begin within about 12 hours. A favorable baroclinic environment may allow the cyclone to deepen as the wind field increases in size, so only a slight decrease of the maximum wind is expected through 36 hours. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone will likely occlude and interact with land, causing a faster rate of weakening and resulting in the eventual dissipation of the surface circulation in about 96 hours. Ophelia continues to pick up forward speed and the initial motion estimate is now 055/24 kt. The hurricane remains embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, and this will keep Ophelia on a northeast or north-northeast heading through the next 72 hours. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, though it has shifted southward a little for the first 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus throughout the forecast period. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores after Ophelia passes to the south and east tonight as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 35.9N 23.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.0N 20.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 42.8N 15.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 48.8N 12.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1800Z 54.0N 9.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z 59.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Disability & Employment: Access, Accommodation and the ADA is topic of October 30 panel discussion
2017-10-14 16:41:11| PortlandOnline
The panel with community members and City staff with disabilities will share tips for having accommodation needs met, what employers should know to be welcoming and more.
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-10-14 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141438 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt, making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner. Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the system moved over these Isles. Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model ensemble TVCX. Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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