je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 36
2016-09-06 10:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060854 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Hermine remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, based on data collected by the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters earlier this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is largely based on guidance from the global models, and shows dissipation by 72 hours. The cyclone is now moving westward, closer to the coastline, at about 7 kt. The system is primarily being steered by a mid- to upper-level low to its south. Hermine is expected to slow down later today, and it will likely stall tonight as it merges with the upper low. By Wednesday, a turn to the north and then northeast is predicted as a shortwave trough approaches the system. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the west this cycle to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from the Air Force reconnaissance plane, an ASCAT overpass, and surface observations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.6N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1800Z 39.5N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0600Z 39.6N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/1800Z 39.8N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/0600Z 40.3N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-09-06 04:55:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060255 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Newton has continued to quickly strengthen this evening, with a ragged eye occasionally becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The eye was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass and the earlier aircraft data. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 87 kt around 2300 UTC, which supported the 75 kt intensity on the intermediate public advisory. Given the increase in organization since that time, the initial wind speed has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory. Newton is forecast to remain in a very low shear environment and over warm water during the next 12 hours, which should lead to continued intensification before the center reaches the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday morning. Weakening is expected while system moves over the the Baja California peninsula, but given the fast forward speed, Newton could remain at or near hurricane strength until final landfall in mainland Mexico in about 36 hours. Newton is moving northwestward or 325/14 kt. The hurricane will be moving around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern United States. This should cause a north-northwestward to northward motion that will bring the hurricane into northwestern Mexico in about 36 hours. The track guidance is very tightly packed, and the NHC track is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The wind radii were expanded outward based on data from the earlier aircraft mission. The updated track and intensity forecast required the government of Mexico to issue new warnings and watches for Baja California and mainland Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
newton
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 35
2016-09-06 04:53:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060253 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 Hermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to spin down some. While there is some convection associated with the cyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the center. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt. Given the lack of deep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening and shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated. It is forecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days. The NHC intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. Hermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily due to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to its south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the cyclone's motion will slow to a crawl. In about two days, an upstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to begin a northeastward motion until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the previous advisory and the global model consensus. The Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and Montauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been contracted slightly. The wind radii forecast is based upon the RVCN wind radii consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 39.6N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 39.7N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 39.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/1200Z 39.8N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/0000Z 40.4N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea/Brown
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-05 22:59:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052059 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016 Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen. A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton is in an environment of light shear and very warm water. The official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility. Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points. Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora. Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14. Newton should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48 hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern United States. The biggest change in the latest model cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of the previous guidance. This makes sense because, with a stronger Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would steer the deeper storm in that direction. The new NHC track prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period. Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
newton
Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-09-05 22:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 052042 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 The satellite presentation of Hermine remains non-tropical, with a rather linear band of deep convection situated north and northwest of the estimated center. There continues to be multiple low-level swirls over the inner part of the circulation. Overall, the appearance of the system is gradually losing organization. The advisory intensity remains at 60 kt based on earlier reconnaissance data and a ship report from this afternoon. The system is forecast to move over SSTs of 23 to 24 deg C on Tuesday and these cooler waters should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and, although this guidance may not be very valid for a post-tropical cyclone, the NHC forecast is also consistent with the trends shown by the global models. Some of these models, such as the ECMWF suggest that the cyclone could dissipate within 72 hours. Earlier aircraft center fixes and a more recent satellite-derived fix result in a motion estimate of 300/6 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Hermine should maintain the west-northwestward motion overnight. After that, the ridge breaks down and the cyclone is expected to become trapped in a region of weak steering currents. This should result in a slow and erratic motion through 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if the cyclone survives, a faster east-northeastward motion could occur due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one but generally to the right of the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 39.3N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 39.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/1800Z 39.9N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/0600Z 40.0N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1800Z 40.3N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/1800Z 42.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Sites : [824] [825] [826] [827] [828] [829] [830] [831] [832] [833] [834] [835] [836] [837] [838] [839] [840] [841] [842] [843] next »