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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-09-06 22:45:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062044 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 The cloud pattern of Newton has continued to decay since the last advisory, with a continued warming of the cloud tops near the center. There has been no data close enough to the center to help determine the intensity, so based on a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and the observed decay the intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt. The initial motion is 345/16. Newton is being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley of the United States. It should turn northward later tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. The northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland. The new forecast track is again similar to, but slightly faster than, the previous track and lies near the multi-model consensus. Little change in strength is expected as the center of Newton crosses portions of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California during the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the circulation of Newton is expected to dissipate over Arizona and New Mexico between 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and it indicates that Newton could reach southeastern Arizona before weakening below tropical-storm strength. Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large portion of Baja California Sur, northwestern Mexico, and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so. Moisture associated with the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 07/0600Z 28.2N 111.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 07/1800Z 31.5N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0600Z 34.2N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 38
2016-09-06 19:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061753 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the coastline appears now to be minimal. This special advisory is being issued to discontinue the remaining coastal tropical storm warnings and to terminate National Hurricane Center advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine. There has again been little change in the structure of Hermine since the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. Buoy data suggests the circulation is still slowly decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system moving eastward across the New England States. After a brief slowing this morning, the center has moved a little faster and the initial motion is now 265/6. Other than that, the track forecast reasoning is unchanged since the last advisory. A slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely during the next 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. For future information on Hermine, please see products issued by your local NWS Forecast Office. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1800Z 39.4N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 37
2016-09-06 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061446 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 There has been little change in the structure of Hermine since the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. Buoy data suggests the circulation is slowly decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system moving eastward across the New England States. Hermine has slowed its forward motion, which is now 270/3. A slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely during the next 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. The tropical storm warning for Long island may be discontinued later today if the winds north of the center continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 39.5N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-09-06 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061444 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Newton's satellite appearance has begun to deteriorate. The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a ragged eye, which has been filling, and breaks in the western eyewall. Deep convection within the central dense overcast (CDO) is asymmetrically distributed, and cloud top temperatures within the CDO have begun to warm significantly. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to T4.5/77 kt and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, a blend of these values. The center of Newton is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of Baja California Sur today, and its interaction with land should result in steady weakening. After the center emerges in the Gulf of California late this afternoon or evening, it is not expected to spend much time over water before making a second landfall in northwestern Mexico early Wednesday. With an increase in southwesterly shear forecast around that time, either a steady intensity or slow weakening is likely prior to the second landfall. Once Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico, the low- to mid-level centers are likely to separate when the circulation passes over the Sierra Madre Occidental, and rapid weakening is forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some compared to the previous one, and is near or just above the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 325/17. Newton is being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the United States lower Mississippi Valley but should turn northward tonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a trough of low pressure lifting out over the western United States. The northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland over northwestern Mexico or southeastern Arizona. The NHC track forecast is virtually the same as the previous one but just a little faster, and is near the multi-model consensus. Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend well away from the center. These hazards will affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Moisture associated the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.1N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 29.7N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/0000Z 32.8N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-06 10:56:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060855 TCDEP5 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016 Newton's intensity appears to have leveled off based on little change in the ragged 45-nmi diameter mid- to upper-level eye noted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Now that the eye is interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur, gradual weakening should begin. However, since Newton's wind field is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower weakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a hurricane when it makes a second landfall along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models show Newton losing no strength at all before the next landfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico, Newton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above the intensity consensus model IVCN, close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. Newton is now moving north-northwestward or 335/15 kt based on microwave satellite fixes. The center of the large eye of Newton is currently moving over or very near Cabo San Lucas, with most of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula now inside the eye. The hurricane is forecast to move steadily around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge currently located over the south-central United States and northwestern Mexico. This stable steering pattern will result in Newton turning northward later today, and then turning toward the north-northeast or northeast tonight and on Wednesday, bringing the center of the hurricane near the northwestern coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. The NHC track guidance remains tightly packed, and the new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies near the GFS-ECMWF model solutions. Since Newton is forecast to remain a hurricane until the second landfall occurs, the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for a portion of mainland Mexico. Although Newton is expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States by 48 hours, deep moisture ahead of the cyclone will result in heavy rains that can produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.8N 109.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS 12H 06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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